Q4 shows slowing in U.S.

The Tooling & Manufacturing Association Quarterly Business Conditions Index for January 1, 2008 was at 43, its lowest point since January 1, 2004. TMA president Bruce Braker reports that during the fourth quarter of 2007, shipments were up for 14 percent of members and down for 41 percent.

Backlogs were up for 16 percent and down for 51 percent. Employment changes were essentially flat.

Job postings on www.TMACareerNet.com also slowed during the fourth quarter. Because special tooling and component part/subassembly companies tend to be leading indicators the overall flat-to-down fourth quarter indicated some slowing may be ahead, Braker said. Exports of U.S. made goods continue to climb. Conversations with some TMA members have indicated, however, that the first quarter of 2008 may be up slightly from 2007.

January 2008 reports from 85 regular member companies indicated overall business evaluations for January 2008 compared to October 2007 decreased from 47 to 43. The three-month projection index decreased from 59 to 56. During Q4, toolroom employment dropped from 442 to 440, a 0.5 percent decrease. Average weekly production hours decreased from 44.4 hours to 43.8 hours, a 0.6 hour decrease, and production employment decreased 0.2 percent, from 1,216 to 1,214.

Precision machining/special machines continued to show the strongest business condition evaluation at 48 (down from 54) followed by stamping at 41 (down from 44).

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